Iowa Caucus Live Results 2016 : Ted Cruz - Today Hot News

The Iowa Caucus: Live Results

Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz scored a victory in Iowa tonight. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Tonight we’ll find out who wins the battleground that is Iowa. The caucus begins at 8PM EST, and I’ll be following along as results trickle in.

On the Republican side, the contest is between frontrunner Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. The latest polls have given Trump the edge, but we’ll see if that holds when the votes are counted. For Democrats, the race has been too close to call. The key is voter turnout: If there is a large number of young voters, we might just see Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders take the win from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

This is the first test of the 2016 election–and an important one. Be sure to check back here for live updates throughout the night. 

12:10AM EST
Thank you all for joining us tonight as the Iowa caucus wraps up. There is word that final results for the Democrats won’t be in tonight.

Can Hillary Clinton come back in New Hampshire like Bill did in 1992 and like she did in 2008? (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

12:05AM EST
With 95% of the vote in for the Democrats, Clinton is at 49.9%, Sanders at 49.6%. As Bernie Sanders put it, “a virtual tie.”

11:30PM EST 
Cruz won convincingly, especially since he had experienced such a pounding these last 10 days. The people will choose the nominee, not the lobbyists or the media — and that is where the decision belongs. Cruz’s 48,000 votes are the most ever cast for a winning GOP candidate in Iowa history. He consistently pounded on his populist themes and will continue to be the Christian candidate, the anti-Washington candidate. He speaks of “morning coming” like Ronald Reagan.
I think Trump is done. He never once mentioned America or the Republican Party in his speech. He only mentioned polls and he underperformed when it actually counted.
Clinton cannot claim victory because she also underperformed. Sanders meanwhile expects to raise a lot of money in the next few days, combined with a huge amount in the last quarter of 2015. The battle continues in both parties — and probably for a while.

Bernie Sanders calls tonight’s Iowa caucus “a virtual tie.” (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

10:55PM EST
With 90% of the vote in, Clinton is at 49.8% and Sanders at 49.6%. It is only getting closer by the minute.
“I love the people of Iowa,” says Donald Trump. “We finished second and I am honored.” Rubio was all about his vision–and stump speech. Trump was all about leading in the New Hampshire poll. It felt empty.

10:49PM EST
Rubio congratulated his “friend” Ted Cruz and thanked Mike Huckabee. He never mentioned Donald Trump,but Trump will be mentioning Rubio over the next 8 days.

10:42PM EST
Rubio speaks of optimism and of being the outsider because he “had no chance” and “need[ed] to wait my time.” He is very young but so were the 42nd, 43rd and 44th Presidents. I have to admit that his youth has been working for him from the time he announced. With Kasich as his “Joe Biden,” he would get experience, Ohio and effective governance as his running mate. And he could stop some of the bleeding among Hispanics the GOP has experienced.
Imagine the GOP having two ethnic sons of the working-class leading their ticket.

10:32PM EST
CNN just declared Cruz wins. This is amazing because no poll had him going into the caucuses leading. He got a huge evangelical vote and strong support from those identified as “very conservative.” Now Trump’s people are saying he never expected to win Iowa, but I heard him and so did everyone else.
Carson is going home. Huckabee is suspending his campaign. O’Malley is out for the Democrats.

10:29PM EST
Clinton is at 50.1%, Sanders at 49.2% with 81% of the vote in, and there are plenty of votes that still need to be counted. Bernie is set up not only to win in New Hampshire, but to crush the primary. Can Clinton come back in NH like Bill did in 1992 and like she did in 2008? I don’t see it. The fact that Sanders is leading on the issue of “understanding people like me” is very compelling.
Is Joe Biden watching tonight?

10:22PM EST
Cruz is defying the pre-election polls that showed him sliding. He apparently survived the birther issue and being known as the meanest guy in town. New numbers have Cruz at 28%, Trump at 24%, Rubio at 23%. Trump is embarrassed to be sure. He is wounded by not even coming close to his own expectations. This is with 97% of the total vote. Rubio will have a lot of cameras following him. Trump will bash Rubio but it will sound so hollow now. In fact, Trump is now NBC’s “Biggest Loser.”

10:12PM EST
Now it’s Clinton at 50%, Sanders at 49%. It’s Des Moines and suburbs for Clinton vs. Cedar Rapids and college towns for Sanders. Still about one fourth of vote to be counted and too close to call. But Clinton is hurt. 74% said Sanders is person who cares about “people like me” while 88% of those who cared about experience voted for Clinton.
##
10:02PM EST
Rubio will make the case, with a lot of justification, that he is the establishment guy who can win. He will make the case that Christie, Bush and Kasich should all drop out to clear the field for either a Trump-Rubio or Cruz-Rubio race for the nomination. I still say a Rubio/Kasich ticket would be the Democrats’ worst nightmare.

10:00PM EST
Dana Bash says if Clinton wins “there is no other way to look this, it is as a win” because of all the pressure on her. I disagree. The inevitable nominee is wounded by Sanders’ showing. She is a wounded candidate anyway, but splitting the vote with a Democratic Socialist declaring a revolution isn’t good for her.
Very high turnout for GOP and Trump is not leading. Conventional wisdom is upside-down but so are the spinners’ wisdom. New numbers: Cruz 28%, Trump 25%, Rubio 22%.
Rubio is seen as the candidate who can win in November. And it is just a little ironic that Trump is in the middle of a Hispanic sandwich, finishing in between two Cuban Americans.

9:55PM EST
With 64% of the Democrat vote in, Clinton is at 51%, Sanders at 49%. Clinton is holding the lead so far in counties that John Edwards won in 2008. Sanders is leading in college towns and Cedar Rapids where still a lot of votes need to be counted. There are enough votes in to show that this is razor-thin and the delegates will be split evenly. But Sanders can still win the state.
With half of GOP votes in, Cruz is at 29%, Trump at 25%, Rubio at 21%. Tightening. Cruz wins the “values voter” with 37%. Rubio is the choice of those who said they want someone who can win in November with 43% (but they are only 21% of those who showed up).
Trump wins big with those who want someone who will stand up for them — but they are only 15% of total voters.

9:50PM EST
GOP tightening. With 40% GOP in, now Cruz at 29%, Trump at 26%, Rubio at 20%. I know Trump recently said he “would like to win in Iowa but may not” — but he mainly said he would definitely win Iowa. He set the expectations for himself. If we go by traditional rules, then a loss is a loss for him. But there has been nothing traditional about Trump. So far, it is a dogfight between the two outsiders, and I think only one can win.

9:30PM EST
Half the vote count is in on the Democratic side: Clinton at 51%, Sanders 48%, O’Malley 1%. This is very tight. Sanders encouraged by long lines in key towns. But remember, that is the beauty contest. This is all about choosing delegates to the next caucuses on a county level. They are apportioned by the showing — thus do Sanders and Clinton get the same number of delegates?
With 25% of GOP numbers in, Cruz is at 30%, Trump 27%, Rubio 19%, Carson 10%. Will Cruz end up winning? Not likely. But 57% combined goes to the outsiders. If Rubio comes in close, he is the leader of the insiders. That sets the table for New Hampshire: Trump or Cruz vs Rubio.

9:00PM EST
Trump leads big among voters over 45 years of age and those without colleges education. Rubio holds lead among the 49% who had a college degree. Cruz got only 15% among independents–and that could hurt him in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

8:52PM EST
While Trump leads among conservatives, it is the moderates who put him on top. Cruz leads big among those who call themselves “very conservative,” while Rubio leads among those who say they are “somewhat conservative.” But Trump’s 35% among “moderate/conservatives” it not only spells victory in Iowa — it has a  lot of meaning for New Hampshire. If he wins NH big, where there are a lot of independents and moderates, he could then run the table.

8:50PM EST

63% of GOP are evangelicals — Cruz is at 26%, Trump 24%, Rubio 21%. Trump is losing among non-evangelicals. Cruz isn’t doing well enough among evangelicals and badly among non-evangelicals (only 15%). Trump was right about evengelicals loving him. GOP say they want someone new and competent.

Majority of Democrats (52%) want to continue Obama’s policies, while 32% want more liberal policies. Jobs and economy are the main issue, while terrorism is low among Democrats. Real numbers are coming in positively for Clinton.

Again these are early entrance polls — not everyone is in attendance.

8:47PM EST
Entrance Poll on Democrats — Clinton at 50%, Sanders 44%, O’Malley 3%. Again the pre-election polls would look good. If Clinton holds at 50% then it is a good night. Anything under 50% and I think she is wounded. 

8:40 PM EST

CNN Entrance Polls — Trump at 27%, Cruz 22%, Rubio 21%, but these are only early estimates only (the people who showed up early). If these hold up, then late pre-election polls were good — especially Opinion Savvy. Also shows that Trump and Rubio are big winners. Rubio’s table is set for New Hampshire and Florida.

Democratic numbers not revealed yet. An anecdotal edge given to Clinton, but we don’t know.

8:17PM EST
Early release of Entrance Polls by CNN shows a three-way horse race on GOP side and a very close race on Democratic side. No numbers yet, but Sanders’ people disappointed with numbers of first-time voters.

8:13PM EST

Ted Cruz admitting that it looks like a huge GOP turnout. This is not what he wants, he agrees, but he is hoping he does well. Will Carson’s people go to his opponents? Will Rand Paul be doing a little better than expected, maybe enough to hurt Cruz?

According to CNN Entrance Poll 43% on GOP side are first-time voters, higher than the 38% in 2012. One third of GOP decided in last few days.

On the Democrat side, 41% are new voters. Only 13% decided in last few days.

7:56PM EST
So far things are pointing to very big turnouts. CNN is reporting that large numbers of people are changing party registration to vote for Trump — and some to vote against. And there are lots of first-time caucus goers in both parties.

Des Moines precincts reporting record numbers of voters, especially younger voters.
Ben Carson is not going to either New Hampshire or South Carolina after tonight, regardless of how he does. He is going home to Florida and will give a talk at National Press Breakfast. Where will his supporters go — Cruz, Trump or Rubio?
I still think Rubio will have a decent enough showing to be the establishment candidate.

7:32PM EST:
Early indicators point to very high turnouts, especially in rural areas. Lots of them are either new voters or people who have voted in Democratic caucuses before and voting in Republican caucuses to vote for or against Trump. Some precincts in Des Moines are loaded with people who say they are feeling the Bern.

Democrats are very interesting. They will gather in 1261 precincts, listen to speeches, then start gathering in parts of their gym, firehouse, garage, or wherever and be the head count. It is a very public process and there is a lot of shaming that takes place (“You are voting for her (or him)?”). People will move around, like musical chairs, and some will make up their minds at the last minute. Some of it has nothing to do with politics and ideas, more to do with pleasing neighbors or getting on the good side of a pastor or school principal. These are town meetings.

7:13PM EST:
Iowans will start to gather shortly and I love this process. Here are some things I am looking for as we start.

• Turnout of course. On the GOP side, 2012 was a record turnout with 122,000 showing up. Normally it has been 70,000-100,000. We all expect many more this time because of the number of candidates and the presence of the “outsiders’ who promise to bring new voters out. Estimates are that there could be 175,000. If it is 140,000 or more that probably means a good night for Donald Trump. Ted Cruz’s people are saying that if it is 135,000 or less that Cruz wins. He is counting on both a great turnout by Christian evangelicals and Tea Party voters.
• On the Democratic side, a low turnout helps Hillary Clinton. A big turnout means lots of young people and new voters — the kind Bernie Sanders has been appealing to. They propelled Barack Obama in 2008 but the Iowa caucuses are normally held when college students are home on break. This time they are back in school and have to come back to their hometowns. But Sanders has enthusiasm on his side, while Clinton has organization.
• Type and pace of turnout. If the Democrats have big turnouts in college towns like Des Moines and Iowa City, then it will be a good turnout for Sanders. Look for that geography and for youthful looking voters. On the GOP side, if there are younger voters, then it could be a stronger night for Rand Paul than the polls have shown.
• Trump’s people say that if so many people have come out for his events, they will come out to vote. I have never been impressed by big crowds as an indicator.

Iowa caucus results: Ted Cruz wins

Story highlights

• Hillary Clinton declares victory in Iowa
• Iowa win sets up Ted Cruz as major contender in delegate-rich, Southern states in coming weeks
• Donald Trump takes second place, and Marco Rubio posts a close third

(CNN)Hillary Clinton declared victory early Tuesday morning in a razor-thin contest against Bernie Sanders in Iowa. But Democratic party officials have not yet declared a winner.

"Hillary Clinton has won the Iowa Caucus," the Clinton campaign said. "After thorough reporting -- and analysis -- of results, there is no uncertainty and Secretary Clinton has clearly won the most national and state delegates."

The state party indicated in a separate statement that it was not ready to make a call.

"The results tonight are the closest in Iowa Democratic caucus history," Iowa party chairman Andy McGuire said. "We will report that final precinct when we have confirmed those results with the chair."

One thing is clear after Monday night's Iowa caucuses: there's a long, volatile election season ahead before two deeply fractured parties can unite behind a nominee.

Republican Ted Cruz bested Donald Trump, raising questions about the billionaire's reliance on his celebrity instead of traditional political organization. And Marco Rubio's stronger-than-expected showing could mark him as the establishment's best hope against a grassroots revolt in next week's New Hampshire primary and beyond.

Cruz's victory sets him up as a formidable force in delegate-rich, Southern states to come and offers movement conservatives hope that one of their own can become the Republican nominee for the first time since Ronald Reagan.

Claiming victory, Cruz fired immediate shots at both Trump and the party elites he has so infuriated by waging an anti-establishment crusade that has nevertheless endeared him to the GOP's rank and file.

"Iowa has sent notice that the Republican nominee and the next President of the United States will not be chosen by the media, will not be chosen by the Washington establishment," Cruz said.

With about 99% of the GOP vote in, Cruz was ahead of Trump 28% to 24%. Rubio was at 23%.

Trump, hours after predicting a "tremendous" victory, delivered a short but gracious speech that lacked his normal bombast, saying he loved Iowa and vowed to bounce back next week in New Hampshire.

"We will go on to get the Republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie," Trump told supporters. "We finished second, and I have to say I am just honored."

Rubio will also leave Iowa with a leg up over other establishment rivals including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who have a lot at stake in New Hampshire.

"This is the moment they said would never happen. For months, they told us we had no chance," a jubilant Rubio said. "They told me that I needed to wait my turn, that I needed to wait in line. But tonight here in Iowa, the people of this great state have sent a very clear message — after seven years of Barack Obama, we are not waiting any longer to take our country back."

On the Democratic side, Clinton are deadlocked at 50% with 99% of the votes counted. Clinton, the national front-runner, admitted breathing a "big sigh of relief" after escaping Iowa -- the state she handily lost to Obama in 2008 -- but promised a vigorous campaign with Sanders.

"It's rare that we have the opportunity we do now," she said in a speech that didn't explicitly claim victory but sought to position her as the authentic progressive in the race.

Sanders, who trailed Clinton in Iowa by 30 points three months ago, told a raucous crowd chanting "Bernie, Bernie" that his campaign made stunning progress.

"Nine months ago, we came to this beautiful state, we had no political organization, we had no money, we had no name recognition and we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the United States of America."

"And tonight," he said, "while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie."

Though Sanders fared well in Iowa and is nicely posited in New Hampshire, his hurdle is proving that he can appeal to more ethnically diverse electorates in later contests in places such as South Carolina.

The caucuses resulted in two casualties -- one on each side. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, a Democrat, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Republican, both dropped their candidacies after faring poorly.

Even before the caucuses began, Ben Carson's campaign said he wouldn't go directly to New Hampshire or South Carolina -- the site of the next primary contests. Instead, the retired neurosurgeon, who was briefly the Iowa front-runner last fall, will go to Florida to rest and see his family.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is also skipping New Hampshire but will go straight to South Carolina, which holds its Republican presidential primary on February 20.

Iowa Caucus results

In Monday's Iowa GOP caucuses, Ted Cruz finished first and Donald Trump finished second.
Yet it's Cruz and Marco Rubio who are being declared the winners.

This may seem bizarre, but it makes a certain amount of sense. Iowa isn't important because of the puny amount of delegates the state will eventually send to the national conventions. It's important because of what the political world — the media, elites, activists, donors, the candidates themselves, and to a certain extent voters in other states — takes away from the caucus results, as I argued in a recent feature.

All these actors are trying to figure out which candidates have the best shot at winning, and many of them believe the caucus results can help reveal the answer to this question. And their reactions to what happened in Iowa can transform the race elsewhere.
Overall, the lessons the political world is taking away are good for Cruz and Rubio — and bad for Trump. For Clinton and Sanders, though, the takeaways are less clear.

Ted Cruz won, defying predictions that Trump had taken him down

Cruz's victory in Iowa was exactly what his campaign needed. He outperformed the polls, thus suggesting that he has a very professional turnout operation and that his campaign will be a player for the long haul. He showed the political world that he could withstand an onslaught of negative attacks from Trump. And he proved that the billionaire is indeed mortal. Republican voters across the country, many of whom haven't been paying attention so far, will now learn of Cruz's victory — and he may well get a bump in the polls as a result.

Expectations for Cruz are low in the next contest, New Hampshire — the Northeastern state doesn't seem a good fit for the Texan who relies on heavy evangelical support. Still, recent Granite State polls already showed him in an effective five-way tie for second place behind Trump, so he could conceivably get a bump there. But the next crucial contest for Cruz is the South Carolina GOP primary on February 20.

Yet Cruz's victory still leaves the race very unsettled. Recent GOP Iowa caucus winners who relied on evangelical support, as Cruz did, have tended to stumble in other regions of the country. And the Texas senator is loathed by much of the Republican establishment — an establishment that could quickly fall behind the other apparent winner of the night.

Marco Rubio finished stronger than expected

The polls showed Marco Rubio in a distant third, and pundits (including me) questioned his strategy and the state of his ground game. Yet the Rubio campaign is looking pretty smart now that the caucus results are in. The Florida senator outperformed the low expectations that his campaign had helped set, finishing in third but within striking distance of Donald Trump.

The idea that Rubio could "win" in Iowa even though he came in third has come in for some mockery lately. But it makes at least some sense. It's well-known that in recent years the Iowa GOP caucuses have been dominated by conservatives and evangelical voters. So any candidate more in the party's mainstream, like Rubio, faces an uphill climb there. And, indeed, Rubio did far better in Iowa than the other establishment-friendly candidates still in the race: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich — thus demonstrating that Rubio has greater crossover appeal than they do.

Of course, big questions remain for Rubio's campaign. If Republican elites fall behind him, will it even matter? Can he draw away support from Cruz, Trump, or Carson, who combined for a majority in Iowa as well as nationally? And what's the first state he wins? These questions remain unanswered, but the Florida senator had reason to celebrate on caucus night.

Donald Trump's second place finish means he fell short of his polls

Even a second place finish for Donald Trump in Iowa would have been unthinkable last spring. But because he surged to first place there in recent polls — and particularly because his final tally was only a bit ahead of Rubio — his performance is being viewed as a big disappointment.

This is inarguably a blow to Trump's campaign. For one, these results send a message to the political world that Trump's poll dominance does not, in fact, necessarily point to what will actually happen on election day. For another, it allows Cruz and Rubio — who both outperformed expectations — to win more media coverage. The Iowa results have shaken up polls elsewhere in the past, which could be bad news for Trump. And voters in other early states trying to cast their ballots strategically may conclude that Trump can't win, and vote for somebody else instead.

However, it may not all be over for Trump yet. It's possible that he could perform better in primaries, where an organized ground game isn't as important. And in the most recent New Hampshire polls, he was leading by over 20 points. Maybe those polls are off just like Iowa's were, or maybe Trump's supporters will abandon him now that he's no longer a "winner." It's best not to take that for granted, though — Iowa is the beginning of primary season voting, not the end.

All the other Republican candidates lost

This is hardly a shocker, but caucus night was a failure for the GOP candidates who finished from fourth to twelfth place. It's true that Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Chris Christie weren't seriously contesting Iowa because they believed the state was too conservative for them. But all three were desperately hoping Marco Rubio wouldn't do well there — and he did do well. As for the other candidates, they're generally considered afterthoughts in the race, but Iowa gave them a chance to prove they could make a splash. They all failed to do so.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders seem locked in a draw

No winner has been called for Democrats in Iowa yet, but for all intents and purposes, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders seem to be tied. And commentators are split on just what this means.
One school of thought is that Sanders needed to win outright, and failed to do so. Iowa is a heavily white state, and if Sanders can't manage to win there — and continues performing so poorly among nonwhite Democrats — his campaign has no chance, this argument goes. So what if Sanders wins New Hampshire next week — he's from a next-door state, and Clinton will just bounce back to win South Carolina, right?

Others disagree. A year ago, the idea that a little-known "democratic socialist" would effectively tie the unanimous choice of the Democratic establishment in New Hampshire would have been unthinkable, they argue. The media will cover this result as a tie, which benefits Sanders, who is still viewed by practically everyone as the underdog. And Sanders is already leading polls by a large margin in New Hampshire, so a victory there would give his campaign the attention and momentum he needs to broaden his appeal to nonwhite voters elsewhere who may not know too much about him yet.

What is clear is that this campaign isn't over just yet. Clinton didn't block the Sanders insurgency from taking off, but she avoided an embarrassing defeat like the one she suffered to Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses. And Sanders didn't get the knockout win that could have truly sent Clinton's campaign reeling, but he did prove that he and his economic populist agenda are a force to be reckoned with in the Democratic Party.